Is the economy at a tipping point?

 Chris Wodke

http://www.summittrainingpublications.com/

This artcile is a reprint of an article I did last year. Things have not improved. The super committee did not reach an agreement and the deficit has ballooned.  Governments in Europe and state governments here at home are threatening default.

Last year a gas station on

Port Washington Road

has gas for $4.15 a gallon.  The rising cost of energy has fueled a huge increase in food prices.  At $3.90 a gallon energy costs amount to 6 percent of spending for the average American. Energy prices have fallen, but are still high

All the recession except the one on 9/11 were started with high energy prices. This current recession started when gas hit $4.00 per gallon nationwide.  The recessions all started when energy prices hit 6 percent of personal spending.  Currently food prices have risen 6.5 percent since January.   Craig Johnson, President of Growth Partners estimates food and energy will amount to 15 percent of consumer spending.  That is for the average American. If you are out of work or have a lower than average income the percentage is even higher.

The job market is improving but still fragile. In March all 12 metro areas in Wisconsin experienced a drop in their unemployment rates according to numbers reported by the Department of Workforce Development.  Madison had the lowers rate at 5.7 percent, followed by 6.6 percent in LaCrosse and 6.9 percent in Oshkosh.  Janesville had the highest rate at 10.2 percent. The rate in Milwaukee was 8.1 percent down from 10.2 percent a year ago. The rate in Racine was 9.7 percent.

There are still many long term unemployed.  Business has started to recover, but has been slow to ramp up hiring. Will the rise in gas and commodity prices stall the fragile recovery?

According to a New York Times/CBS poll   Americans are not feeling good about the state of the economy. They list high gas prices and unemployment as two of the reasons.   57 percent of Americans do not approve of the job President Obama is doing in handling the economy.  About the same number are concerned about the President’s handling of the deficit.  This lack of confidence will affect business spending and investment.  The rise in energy and commodity costs will decrease consumer spending in the rest of the economy. Both bad signs for the economy and future job creation.

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